Many people have shown that their results are pretty comparable to the MCQ. It seems the trend is that a person's score meets somewhere between their trending and average scores.
I found this interesting:
Today I finally received my score report after failing FAR.
Score report:
Non-profit: Stronger
Conceptual framework: comparable
Specific transactions: comparable
Financial statement accounts: weaker
Governmental: weaker
Ninja MCQ by category:
Nonprofit: 79%
Conceptual: 85%
Specific transactions: 76%
Governmental: 73%
Financial statement accounts: 70%
Pretty accurate. This makes me appreciate ninja MCQ even more.